Date June 9 2023
Then Ukraine war can only end in one way stalemate. Ukraine can not and will never
invade or conquer Russia or even set soldiers on Russian soil, they neither have the
manpower nor will NATO allow the attack on a Nuclear power. Nor has Russia
demonstrated the ability to conquer Ukraine out right.
So there are only the questions of when and the terms of the peace deal.
The when is easy I personally think it will happen 6 months after the 2025 United States
presidential election. So about June 2025. Why? because Biden will lose the election to
Trump and Trump is all about the deal. He has shown his weakness in the face of Russia
so much so that there are actually running joke. I think
that he will frame his intervention as him being a statesman and bring peace and an end
to the war, I am sure that this will be celebrated with his base. And NATO will follow
whatever the US does.
The terms of the deal as far as the land, and the borders will probably be whatever the
military line of control is on the ground while the deal was made. If I was to put money
on it I would say Russia should hold on to most of Crimea, even if there is any sort of
gain of land in the Crimea then part of the peace deal will give control of military sea
bases for the Black Sea and its defendable land and some sort of connection to Russia.
To the east, this is the battle zone Ukraine will fight Russia taking back some of the land
while Russia would keep some. The long-term goal of any Ukrainian military
commander is to capture and hold as much of this land as possible.
To NATO or not to NATO that is the question do you allow Ukraine to join NATO? I
have no idea. I know Russia will not like it and ironically enough one of the reasons that
Russia would have had to invade Ukraine was to prevent it from joining NATO but has
had the opposite effect causing countries like Finland and Sweden to want to join NATO
too. My money is that it will probably be some kind of buffer state between NATO and
Russia, but that is a strategic decision that is not easy to predict. However, Ukraine
would probably be allowed to join the
EU if its economy is in line with EU standards.
Adheim
