Wednesday, February 2, 2011

Egypt , Uprising after Tusina

Glory be to Allah the most high I bear witness that there is nothing worthy of worship but Allah and Muhammad is his messenger as to what follows

My prediction in Egypt is that President Mubarak will order the military to crack down on the protesters

And either they will obey , or disobey

They Obey

There should be a reversion to the aftermath of assassination of his predecessor or the uprising in Syria they would be crushed , arrests , long arbitrary jail terms and torture of anyone that the paranoid government deems a treat

They disobey

IF the military refused to crack down then there would likely result in something like the fall of Communism in the USSR where the army had a choice to support or not to support Yelson . They chose Yelson and revolted against the Communist party and shelled parliament forcing a end to the Soviet rule . Similar the military would have chose Mubarak or the people . If they don’t support him there would have to take some sort of action against him . Members of the government , internal security apparatus ect would have to go into exile . A caretaker government would be set up headed by a intern government led most likely by some kind of military leadership . Then democratic elections , where no one would win a clear majority the muslim brotherhood would have a large block and other parties would be there . Some sort of collation should be formed and they would lead the country . There would properly be pro-US but the stance on Israel would properly be revisited . I am not sure if the would open the boarder an allow Palestinians to come and go freely or just allow them to have tunnels at will

And Allah Knows Best